Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century.pdf

Abstract

The article argues that radical life extension in humans is implausible in the twenty-first century, as evidenced by the deceleration of life expectancy gains since 1990 in the world's longest-lived populations. Significant increases in life expectancy now require substantially greater reductions in mortality rates, which are unlikely without breakthroughs in modulating biological aging. Therefore, without interventions targeting the biological aging process, substantial extensions of human lifespan are not expected in this century.

Key Points

• Radical life extension has not occurred since 1990 in the longest-lived populations, with only temporary significant gains in South Korea and Hong Kong.
• The rate of improvement in life expectancy has decelerated in all long-lived populations, making further significant gains unlikely.
• Increasing life expectancy by one year now requires greater reductions in mortality rates than in the past, indicating diminishing returns from traditional health interventions.
• Survival to age 100 remains low, with only about 5% of females and 1.8% of males expected to reach 100 in the longest-lived populations.
• Achieving a life expectancy at birth of 110 years would require unprecedented reductions in mortality across all ages, which is implausible without breakthroughs in slowing biological aging.
• Life table entropy and lifespan inequality metrics indicate that life expectancy is approaching a limit in long-lived populations.
• Without interventions that modulate biological aging, significant further increases in human life expectancy are unlikely in this century.

What advancements in geroscience could potentially enable radical life extension in humans?

Advancements in geroscience that could potentially enable radical life extension in humans focus on directly modulating the biological processes of aging. The context provided highlights that while improvements in public health and medical care have extended life expectancy in the past, significant further increases are unlikely without breakthroughs in slowing biological aging. Here are some key advancements in geroscience that could contribute to radical life extension:

1. Interventions Targeting Biological Aging: Developing therapies that can slow down or reverse the biological aging process is central to extending human lifespan. This involves understanding and manipulating the fundamental mechanisms of aging at the molecular and cellular levels.
2. Geroscience Research: The interdisciplinary field of geroscience seeks to understand the relationship between aging and age-related diseases. By targeting the aging process itself, it's possible to delay the onset of multiple chronic diseases simultaneously.
3. Senolytic Drugs: These are agents that selectively eliminate senescent cells, which accumulate with age and contribute to age-related decline and diseases. Removing these cells can improve tissue function and has the potential to extend healthy lifespan.